This fight on the Barrios vs. Pacquiao undercard may be the best of the weekend. Fundora won their first fight, outlasting Tszyu in a bloody war. Tszyu was badly affected by a cut caused by an accidental Fundora elbow that left blood streaming in Tszyu's eyes for nearly the entire fight. Prior to the cut, Tszyu was landing big shots on Fundora and seemed to be in control of the fight. Fundora switched to a more jab-based attack down the stretch, using his incredible reach to keep Tszyu at a distance. But that's not how Fundora fights traditionally, and Tszyu should be able to get inside and do the work he was doing early in the first fight. This should be a good fight but it's one Tszyu has every chance to win.
Jesse Rodriguez vs. Phumelela Cafu
Under 7.5 rounds (-115)
Rodriguez should run away with this fight. Cafu has only fought outside of South Africa once and never against anyone nearly as skilled as Rodriguez. Also, Cafu has had five of his 14 pro fights end in either a draw or a split decision, which shows he hasn't been able to put his stamp on fights even at lower levels. Rodriguez is a dynamic fighter who has beaten truly good fighters. Rodriguez is a -3000 favorite and -400 to win by stoppage. That leaves under 7.5 rounds as the best available bet to keep with our rules of -250 odds or better. Look for Rodriguez not to waste time in taking the fight right to Cafu.
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